Economic consequences of follow-up disasters: Lessons from the 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake

نویسندگان

چکیده

We apply a Bayesian Panel VAR (BPVAR) and DSGE approach to study the regional effects of 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake. disentangle persistent fall in electricity supply following Fukushima accident, from immediate but more temporary production shock attributable natural disaster. Specifically, we estimate contribution on regions economic recovery. First, BPVAR with regional-level data industrial production, prices, trade, obtain impulse responses disaster shock. find that all experienced strong decline long-lasting disruptions production. Inflationary pressures were short-lived. Second, present model can capture key observations this empirical model, provide theoretical response functions distinguish shock, Thirdly, line predictions counterfactual analysis via conditional forecasts based our reveals Japanese economies, particularly hit regions, did experience loss trade due supply.

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ژورنال

عنوان ژورنال: Energy Economics

سال: 2021

ISSN: ['1873-6181', '0140-9883']

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2021.105559